Every Bitcoin that exists has a last-moved price. The price at which that coin last changed hands on-chain. Supply in Profit is the percentage of all circulating Bitcoin where that last-moved price is below the current market price. In other words, the share of the network sitting on an unrealized gain.
As of April 2026, that number sits around 64%. Roughly 64% of all Bitcoin in circulation last moved at a price below where Bitcoin trades today. The remaining 36% last moved at a higher price and is currently underwater.
Supply in Profit is a direct read on the emotional state of the network. When most holders are in profit, the conditions for selling exist. People who are up have the option to take gains. When most holders are underwater, that option largely disappears. Sellers have already sold or are holding through pain. The market is running low on willing sellers.
This is not a prediction. It is a structural observation about who holds what and at what cost. The behavior that follows from these distributions has been consistent across every Bitcoin cycle on record.
As of April 2026, at 64%, the majority of holders are profitable but the reading is far from the extreme levels that have historically marked cycle tops.
Prior cycle peaks saw readings sustained above 90% for weeks or months before distribution began. At 64%, there is meaningful room before reaching those historically stretched levels. At the same time, 64% is well above the deep bottom readings where the most significant accumulation windows have appeared.
Price-based indicators react to where Bitcoin trades today. Supply in Profit reacts to where Bitcoin trades today relative to where every holder entered.
This distinction matters during sideways markets. If Bitcoin moves flat for six months, most price-based indicators show neutral or no signal. But Supply in Profit can shift significantly during that same period as holders rotate. Long-term holders who bought at lower prices gradually give way to new buyers entering at current levels. The cost basis distribution of the entire network changes even when price does not.
This makes Supply in Profit a useful complement to momentum and valuation signals. It captures something about the network's internal structure that price alone cannot show.
When Supply in Profit compresses below 55% and stays there, the network is in a state that has preceded every major Bitcoin recovery on record. Not because the indicator predicts recoveries. Because that level of compression reflects a market where the sellers who were going to sell have sold, where new demand faces a reduced supply of motivated exits, and where the cost basis of the remaining network is concentrated at levels close to or below current price.
That compression has not lasted long in any prior cycle. The window it represents has been measured in weeks, not months. Understanding where Supply in Profit stands, and what direction it is moving, is part of how Phoenix Macro reads where the cycle actually is rather than where price suggests it might be.