Signal Reference
Eight signals. One composite score.
On-chain, macro, and technical. Each measures a distinct dimension of market structure.
The Phoenix Macro system reads eight indicators every week. Each is normalised against its historical range and assigned a weight based on its historical reliability as an accumulation signal. The weighted inputs combine into the IA Score, which drives the phase classification and capital deployment decision. No signal operates in isolation. The composite is what matters.
On-Chain
MVRV-Z Score
Market Value to Realised Value, Z-score normalised. Measures how far current market cap deviates from the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Historically the most reliable cycle top and bottom identifier. Extremes above 7 have marked every major top. Readings below 0 have marked every major bottom.
On-Chain
STH MVRV
MVRV scoped to Short-Term Holders only, defined as coins moved within the last 155 days. New participants are the most price-sensitive group. When STH MVRV compresses toward 1.0 or below, recent buyers are at breakeven or underwater. This historically precedes either capitulation or strong recovery phases.
On-Chain
SOPR
Spent Output Profit Ratio. Measures whether coins being moved on-chain are doing so at a profit or loss relative to when they were last moved. SOPR below 1.0 means the average coin being spent is sold at a loss. Sustained sub-1 readings indicate capitulation and historically mark high-value accumulation windows.
On-Chain
NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit and Loss. The aggregate unrealised gain or loss of all market participants expressed as a fraction of market cap. NUPL near zero means the market is at its aggregate cost basis. Negative NUPL is rare and has historically occurred only during the deepest phases of bear markets, representing maximum fear.
Macro
ETF Flows
Net weekly flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, primarily US-listed products. Institutional demand is now a structurally significant driver of BTC price. Sustained outflows signal institutional risk-off. Sustained inflows signal institutional accumulation. This layer was added after the January 2024 ETF approvals made flow data reliably available.
On-Chain
Realized Profit Oscillator
Measures the weekly volume of realised profit relative to its own moving average. When realised profit spikes far above trend, a significant portion of holders are taking profits simultaneously. This historically precedes local tops. When realised profit collapses below trend, profit-taking has exhausted itself, which often precedes recovery.
Technical
200-Week Moving Average
The 200-week moving average of Bitcoin price. The single most durable long-cycle floor reference in Bitcoin's history. Every time price has traded below the 200W MA it has eventually recovered above it. The system uses distance from the 200W MA as a valuation anchor, not a timing signal.
On-Chain
Supply in Profit
The percentage of all Bitcoin supply currently held at an unrealised gain. When supply in profit exceeds 90%, almost every holder is in profit and the market is historically stretched. When it falls below 50%, the majority of supply is underwater, which has marked the deepest accumulation phases. Current reading is available in the platform.
How signals combine into the IA Score
Each signal is normalised against its multi-year historical range and assigned a weight based on its historical reliability as an accumulation indicator. The weighted inputs combine into a single composite score updated every Monday. The score maps to one of five market phases, which determines the weekly capital deployment rate across the three allocation streams. Individual signal weightings are not disclosed.
Signal definitions and historical context as of April 2026. On-chain data sourced from public blockchain analytics. ETF flow data sourced from public filings. Signal weightings are proprietary and subject to periodic review. Nothing on this page constitutes financial advice.